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Could Mexican Aviation Be Back At Pre-Pandemic Levels Before 2022?

Before the year ends, the Mexican aviation industry could be at its pre-pandemic levels, according to data published by the Mexican Government, Cirium, and ForwardKeys. Two of the leading carriers in the country have already turned back to profit, and the trend is looking good, despite some challenges. Let’s investigate further.

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Mexico has had a strong rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. Photo: Getty Images.

How was Mexico’s first half of the particular year?

During 2021’s first semester, Mexico had total traffic of 33, 368, 660 passengers carried by 55 carriers, both domestically and internationally. Compared to 2019’s first half (when there were 47, 415, 396 passengers), that’s a 70% recovery.

We can separate Mexico’s recovery into three segments: the domestic, the US traffic, and all the other countries combined. The first two have recovered quite smoothly from the crisis, while the latter is still much behind due to travel restrictions.

Mexico’s domestic market

Mexico’s domestic recovery has been one associated with the great stories regarding the year. Fueled by Volaris and Viva Aerobus (and despite Interjet’s demise ), demand is going strong within the country.

Volaris is back to its pre-pandemic traffic amounts, while Viva Aerobus has grown over 11%. It’s no surprise both carriers have reported profits once again. Meanwhile, Aeromexico is around 14% below.

Despite the good numbers, 2021’s first-half traffic results are still 25% below the pre-pandemic levels. Though, to be fair, January’s levels were down 38%, while June’s levels were only down 16%. So there’s a consistent recovery.

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US airlines dominate typically the market to Mexico, led by American Airlines. Picture: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

Mexico-US market

Here, US airlines heavily dominated the market, which had 74% of the transborder market share in June. Between the carriers involving both countries, they carried approximately 12. 5 million passengers in this 1st half. This puts this market at around 70% of its 2019 ranges.

Nevertheless, simply by June, the US air carriers already had a 24% increase in passengers’ number compared to the same month, two years ago.

The rest of the world

Every other airline operating flights in order to Mexico carried 1, 238, 137 passengers this very first half. That’s a decrease of 78% compared to be able to pre-pandemic levels.

What can we expect going forward?

But hey, you said that Mexico could be back at pre-pandemic levels before the year ends! I know. And it could nevertheless happen.

South america will definitely regain 100% connected with its 2019 levels inside terms of capacity before the year ends, according for you to local trends. Domestically, both Viva and Volaris are already offering more flights and seats, according to help Cirium.

Internationally, ForwardKeys expects Mexico’s arrivals to be only 5. 6% below 2019 degrees by the third quarter. Moreover, Cirium foresees the minimal 2 . 8% growth in terms of plane tickets by December.

could mexican aviation be back at pre pandemic levels before 2022 2 Airplane GEEK Could Mexican Aviation Be Back At Pre-Pandemic Levels Before 2022?
Volaris will be leading the recovery throughout Mexico. Photo: Getty Images.

What challenges can Paraguay expect?

There are several challenges that the Mexican airline industry can continue to face in 2021. The particular most obvious of them is the current degradation to Category 2 through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Though, this downgrade is only impacting the Mexican service providers going into the ALL OF US. The US airlines flying into Mexico have no restrictions other than the freezing of their codeshare agreements.

Another challenge is the recovery with other markets, for example, the transatlantic. During often the last year, Mexico has benefited from the fact that Europe as well as the US had been mostly closed to each other. Mexico attracted US ALL travelers looking for a new leisure destination, and some Europeans needed to enter the US but had towards stay two weeks around Mexico before crossing your border. Now, the globe is slowly opening up again, and Mexico could lose some COVID market share it gained.

Typically the two final challenges are the pandemic and the global economy. If any for those two worsens, Mexico’s recovery could go backward.

What do you think about Mexico’s recovery so far? Let us know on the comments.

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